RBI maintains status quo in Sixth Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2015-16
Policy repo rate unchanged at 6.75% and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) unchanged at 4%
RBI in its sixth Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2015-16 has kept the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 6.75%, cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks unchanged at 4% of net demand and time liability (NDTL). Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF stands unchanged at 5.75%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 7.75%. RBI continue to provide liquidity under overnight repos at 0.25% of bankwise NDTL at the LAF repo rate and liquidity under 14-day term repos as well as longer term repos of up to 0.75% of NDTL of the banking system through auctions
The RBI policy rates so far
Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from various sources, Note:, , #Data for Gross domestic product for Q2 of 2014-15, ^Data for Oct 2014, ^^ Data for November 2014 , ^^^December 2014,” Data for Jan 2015, “” Data for Feb 2015, *Data for Sep 2014, ** Data for Oct 2014 and *** Data for Nov 2014.@ Data for Dec 2014 @@ Data for Jan 2015. Note: The Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation has released the new series of national accounts, revising the base year from 2004-05 to 2011-12. With this backdrop, real GDP growth for 2012-13 is estimated at 5.1% and 6.9% for 2013-14, $Advance estimates of national income 2014-15 MOSPI, $$ RBI projections in the first Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2015-16. @^ IIP for the month of March 2015, @* WPI for April 2015. $$$Real GDP growth Provisional estimates of 2014-15, MOSPI, @** Data for month of June 2015, @*** Data for August 2015 @**** Data for Oct 2015, @# December 2015 @^^ Data for May 2015, @^^^ Data for July 2015, @^^^^Data for Sep 2015 , @## Nov 2015; RBI projection of GVA growth for 2015-16, ;; RBI projections according to 4th, 5th & 6th Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2015-16
Snapshot of Sixth Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2015-16
Since the fifth bi-monthly statement of December 2015, global growth has slowed, with the ongoing weakening of activity in major emerging market economies (EMEs) outweighing the recovery in some advanced economies (AEs). World trade has remained subdued, held down by anaemic demand, new lows in commodity prices and currency realignments. In the United States, an improving labour market continues to support a consumption-led recovery. Manufacturing activity is sluggish, however, reflecting retrenchment in oil and gas drilling activity and declining exports. In the Euro area, improving labour market and financing conditions are supporting consumer spending and business investment. Although core inflation and wage growth are subdued, deflation risks appear to be receding. In Japan, the combination of exceptional monetary accommodation and fiscal stimulus has failed to spur sustainable domestic demand so far. In China, growth in Q4 of 2015 was the slowest since 2009, pulled down by manufacturing, residential investment and exports. EME commodity exporters confront recessionary conditions, falling currencies, sluggish exports and still high inflation relative to their recent histories.
On the domestic front, economic activity lost momentum in Q3 of 2015-16, pulled down by slackening agricultural and industrial growth. The north-east monsoon season ended in December with a deficiency of 23 per cent relative to the long period average (LPA). By end-January, rabi sowing was mildly deficient relative to a year ago, as well as to the quinquennial average in respect of all crops, except coarse cereals. Rural incomes will continue to be supported by allied activities such as dairy and horticulture, which now contribute as much to GDP as food grains. In the first two months of Q3 of 2015-16, industrial activity slowed in relation to the preceding quarter. This mainly reflects weak investment demand with some deceleration of capital goods production. Stalled projects continue to remain high, and there is a decline in new investment intentions, perhaps on the back of low capacity utilization. While revenue growth in manufacturing has been modest, the fall in costs, partly because of a decline in commodity prices, and partly because of improvements in manufacturing efficiency, have resulted in relatively stronger profitability. The Reserve Bank’s industrial outlook survey suggests a modest expansion of activity likely in Q4. In January 2016, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) expanded to a four-month high on, inter alia, resumption of output by firms affected by the December floods as well as on new domestic and export orders.
CPI inflation to be around 5% by the end of fiscal 2016-17— Inflation has evolved closely along the trajectory set by the monetary policy stance. With unfavourable base effects on the ebb and benign prices of fruits and vegetables and crude oil, the January 2016 target of 6% should be met. Going forward, under the assumption of a normal monsoon and the current level of international crude oil prices and exchange rates, inflation is expected to be inertial and be around 5 per cent by the end of fiscal 2016-17. However, the implementation of the VII Central Pay Commission award, which has not been factored into these projections, will impart upward momentum to this trajectory for a period of one to two years. The Reserve Bank will adjust the forecast path as and when more clarity emerges on the timing of implementation. Vagaries in the spatial and temporal distribution of the monsoon and the impact of adverse geo-political events on commodity prices and financial markets add additional uncertainty to the baseline.
Quarterly projection of CPI inflation (y-o-y) for 2015-16 and 2016-17
Source: RBI
GVA growth for 2015-16 kept unchanged at 7.4% and projected 7.6% for 2016-17– Prospects for the rabi harvest are improving slowly. The near-term outlook for industrial activity may be constrained by adverse base effects in Q4 and still weak exports, although the pick-up in corporate profitability on the back of declining input costs may provide an offset. Some categories of services are likely to gain momentum on expectations of higher activity in coming months, though the aggregate state of activity remains muted. On balance, therefore, GVA growth for 2015-16 is kept unchanged at 7.4 per cent with a downside bias.
For 2016-17, growth is expected to strengthen gradually, notwithstanding significant headwinds. Expectations of a normal monsoon after two consecutive years of rainfall deficiency, the large positive terms of trade gain, improving real incomes of households and lower input costs of firms should contribute to strengthening the growth momentum. Yet, still weak domestic private investment demand in a phase of balance sheet adjustments, re-emergence of concerns relating to stalled projects, excess capacity in industry, sluggish external demand conditions dampening export growth could act as headwinds. Based on an assessment of the balance of risks, GVA growth for 2016-17 is projected at 7.6%.
Quarterly projection of growth in GVA at basic prices (y-o-y) for Q3:2015-16 to 2016-17
Source: RBI
In keeping with the Government’s Start-up India initiative, the Reserve Bank will take steps to ease doing business and contribute to an ecosystem that is conducive for growth of start-ups. These measures will create an enabling framework for receiving foreign venture capital, differing contractual structures embedded in investment instruments, deferring receipt of considerations for transfer of ownership, facilities for escrow arrangements and simplification of documentation and reporting procedures. A detailed statement is being issued separately.
The current momentum of growth is reasonable, though below what should be expected over the medium term. Underlying growth drivers need to be rekindled to place the economy durably on a higher growth trajectory. The revival of private investment, in particular, has a crucial role, especially as the climate for business improves and fiscal policy continues to consolidate. The Indian economy is currently being viewed as a beacon of stability because of the steady disinflation, a modest current account deficit and commitment to fiscal rectitude. This needs to be maintained so that the foundations of stable and sustainable growth are strengthened. The Reserve Bank continues to be accommodative even as it leaves the policy rate unchanged in this review, while awaiting further data on the development of inflation. Structural reforms in the forthcoming Union Budget that boost growth while controlling spending will create more space for monetary policy to support growth, while also ensuring that inflation remains on the projected path of 5 per cent by the end of 2016-17.
Warm regards,
Dr. S P Sharma
Chief Economist & Director-Research
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February 2016
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Dear citizens and guests of Zagreb!
The month of February is playfully unpredictable and lively, and so is the very diverse offer of events in our city. Apart from numerous cultural happenings, this month we are looking forward to days filled with love and traditional carnival processions.
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Dear friends and business partners!
Have you noticed the smell of spring in the air? Or is it “just” Valentine’s? Be as it were, February in Zagreb is a time for new beginnings, marked by many interesting cultural and sporting events.
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our pick
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The global cultural heritage
The Museum of Arts and Crafts Presents the Google Cultural Institute
You can now go on a virtual tour of the Museum of Arts and Crafts via the Google Cultural Institute, which provides internet users with insight into global cultural heritage and features more than 290 artworks exhibited in one of the oldest museums in Croatia.
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The Italian Cultural Centre will be participating at Bharat Rang Mahotsav, 1- 21 February 2016 with
The comedy of Harlequin and Pulcinella in Venicee Play
Saturday
PLAYWRIGHT: CLAUDIO DE MAGLIO
DIRECTOR: PINO DI BUDUO & CLAUDIO DE MAGLIO
GROUP: TEATRO POTLACH, ITALY
LANGUAGE: ITALIAN
DURATION: 1 HR
SATURDAY, 6TH FEBRUARY, 8:30PM
ABHIMANCH AUDITORIUM, NATIONAL SCHOOL OF DRAMA, BAHAWALPUR HOUSE, BHAGWAN DAS ROAD, NEW DELHI – 110001
The Play
The Play
It is a puzzle to be solved by Harlequin and Pulcinella. Who is the ‘mysterious knight’? To resolve this task the two servants will face together the sea, a tropical storm, the emotional storms of love, the deception of Mr. Pantalone the needy, and the vanity of a doctor. But in magical Venice, love will still win over greed and power games.
After a mixture of lies, cunning, tricks and pitfalls…. the plot will twist! The traitor will be arrested and the mysterious knight unmasked. is a puzzle to be solved by Harlequin and Pulcinella. Who is the ‘mysterious knight’? To resolve this task the two servants will face together the sea, a tropical storm, the emotional storms of love, the deception of Mr. Pantalone the needy, and the vanity of a doctor.
But in magical Venice, love will still win over greed and power games. After a mixture of lies, cunning, tricks and pitfalls….e plot will twist! The traitor will be arrested and mysterious knight unmasked.
Entry by tickets only. You can book your tickets online; the link is given below
Regards,
Italian Embassy Cultural Centre
50- E, Chandragupta Marg (Entry from Nyaya Marg)
Chanakyapuri, New Delhi – 110 021
Phone: 0091-11-26871901/03/04
Email: iicnewdelhi@esteri.it
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UN PEACEKEEPING
Major General Jai Shanker Menon of India to Head United Nations Disengagement Observer Force
United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on 2 February announced the appointment of Major General Jai Shanker Menon of India as the Head of Mission and Force Commander of the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).http://undof.unmissions.org
Major General Menon succeeds Lieutenant General Purna Chandra Thapa of Nepal, who will complete his assignment on 7 February 2016. The Secretary-General is grateful to Lieutenant General Thapa for his dedicated leadership during a particularly difficult period in the Mission’s history.
Major General Menon brings to his new position extensive command experience and knowledge of peacekeeping affairs at the national and international levels. At the time of his appointment, Major General Menon was Additional Director General Equipment Management in the Indian Army. From 2012 to 2013, Major General Menon was General Officer, Commanding an Infantry Division. He held a number of command positions in the Indian Army, including Commandant of Regimental Training Centre, Brigade Commander and Battalion Commander. Major General Menon also served at the international level, including in the United Nations as a Military Observer in the United Nations Operation in Mozambique (ONUMOZ) in 1993 and United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) from 2007 to 2009.
Major General Menon holds a Master of Management Studies degree from Osmania University in Hyderabad, India, a Master of Defence Studies degree from Madras University, in Chennai, India and a Bachelor of Arts degree from Jawahar Lal Nehru University in New Delhi, India. He also graduated from the National Defence Academy in Khadakvasla, India, Army War College in Mhow, India, Defence Services Staff College in Wellington, India and the College of Defence Management in Secunderabad, India.
Born in 1959, he is married and has two daughters.
***
RAJIV CHANDRAN
National Information Officer
United Nations Information Centre
for India and Bhutan
55, Lodi Estate, New Delhi 110003
Tel: 91 11 2462 3439
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