The Newspapers Editor's Society: 03/16/19

Saturday, March 16, 2019

India’s Foreign Trade : February 2019

Merchandise exports grew by 2% and imports declined by 5% in February 2019

Merchandise Trade

Exports

Imports

India’s Exports in February 2019 were USD 27 Billion, as compared to USD 26 Billion in February 2018, exhibiting a positive growth of 2%. In Rupee terms, exports were Rs. 1,89,931 Crore in February 2019, as compared to Rs. 1,67,584 Crore in February 2018, registering a positive growth of 13%

Cumulative value of exports for the period April-February 2018-19 was USD 298 Billion (Rs.20,88,290 Crore) as against USD 274 Billion (Rs.17,65,895 Crore) during the period April-February 2017-18, registering a positive growth of 9% in Dollar terms (18% in Rupee terms).

Imports in February 2019 were USD 36 Billion (Rs. 2,58,272 Crore), which was 5% lower in Dollar terms and 5% higher in Rupee terms over imports of USD 38 Billion (Rs.2,46,780 Crore) in February 2018.

Cumulative value of imports for the period April-February 2018-19 was USD 464 Billion (Rs.32,46,190 Crore), as against USD 423 Billion (Rs.27,22,592 Crore) during the period April-February 2017-18, registering a positive growth of 10% in Dollar terms (19% in Rupee terms).

India’s Trade Statistics at a Glance

Merchandise	June-18	July-18	Aug-18	Sept-18	Oct-18	Nov-18	Dec-18	Jan-19	Feb-19
Exports (USD billion)	28	26	28	28	27	26	28	26	27
Growth (%)	17	14	19	-2	18	1	0.3	4	2
Imports (USD billion)	44	44	45	42	44	43	41	41	36
Growth (%)	21	29	25	10	18	4	2	0.01	-5
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-17	-18.	-17	-14	-17	-17	-13	-14.7	-10

Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Govt of India

Trend in Exports-Imports Growth (%)

Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Govt of India

Trend in Exports-Imports Value (in USD Billion)

Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Govt of India

Top exported products in February 2019

During February 2019, major commodity groups of export showing positive growth over the corresponding month of last year are Drugs & Pharmaceuticals (16%), RMG of all Textiles (7%), Organic & Inorganic Chemicals (4%); Cotton Yarn/Fabs/made ups, handloom products, etc (2%) and Engineering Goods (1%)

Top imported products in February 2019

Major commodity groups of import showing negative growth in February 2019 over the corresponding month of last year are Pearls, precious, semi-precious stones (-17%); Gold (-11%); Petroleum, Crude & products (-9%); Electronic goods (-6%); and Organic & Inorganic Chemicals (-0.4%)

Non-Petroleum and Non-Gems Exports

Non-petroleum and Non Gems and Jewellery exports in February 2019 were USD 20 Billion, as compared to USD 19 Billion in February 2018, exhibiting a positive growth of 5 per cent. Non-petroleum and Non Gems and Jewellery exports in April-February 2018-19 were USD 217 Billion, as compared to USD 202 Billion for the corresponding period in 2017-18, an increase of 8 per cent.

Crude oil and Non-Oil Imports

Oil imports in February 2019 were USD 9 Billion (Rs. 66,774 Crore), which was 8 percent lower in Dollar terms (2 percent higher in Rupee terms), compared to USD 10 Billion (Rs. 65,639 Crore) in February 2018. Oil imports in April-February 2018-19 were USD 129 Billion (Rs. 9,01,538 Crore) which was 32 per cent higher in Dollar terms (43 percent higher in Rupee terms) compared to USD 97 Billion (Rs. 6,27,961 Crore), over the same period last year.

In this connection it is mentioned that the global Brent price ($/bbl) has decreased by 2% in February 2019 vis-à-vis February 2018 as per data available from World Bank.

Non-oil imports in February 2019 were estimated at USD 27 Billion (Rs.1,91,497 Crore) which was 4 per cent lower in Dollar terms (6 percent higher in Rupee terms), compared to USD 28 Billion (Rs. 1,81,140 Crore) in February 2018. Non-oil imports in April-February 2018-19 were USD 335 Billion (Rs.23,44,652 Crore) which was 3 per cent higher in Dollar terms (12 percent higher in Rupee terms), compared to USD 325 Billion (Rs. 20,94,631 Crore) in April-February 2017-18.

Trade in Services

EXPORTS (Receipts)

Exports in January 2019 were USD 18 Billion (Rs.1,25,516 Crore) registering a negative growth of 1 per cent in dollar terms, vis-à-vis December 2018. (as per RBI’s Press Release for the respective months).

IMPORTS (Payments)

Imports in January 2019 were USD 11 Billion (Rs.77,997 Crore) registering a negative growth of 3 per cent in dollar terms, vis-à-vis December 2018. (as per RBI’s Press Release for the respective months).

Services	May-18	June-18	July-18	Aug-18	Sept-18	Oct-18	Nov-18	Dec-18	Jan-19
Exports (Receipts) (USD billion)	16	17	17	16	16	17	16	18	18
Imports (Payments) (USD billion)	10	10	11	10	10	10	10	11	11
Trade Balance (USD billion)	6	6	7	6	6	7	6	7	7

Overall Trade Balance

World Bank Signs Agreement to Provide Additional Funding of USD 137 million to Enhance Dam Safety in India

The World Bank, Government of India and representatives of 5 state governments of India and implementing agencies signed the loan agreement for additional financing of USD 137 million for the Dam Rehabilitation and Improvement Project (DRIP) that will help rehabilitate and modernize over 220 selected large dams in the states of Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Uttarakhand.

This project will help improve safety and operational performance of large and small dams in India leading to sustained rural development. The additional funding of USD 137 million signed will be used for construction of an additional spillway for Hirakud Dam in Odisha state as well as continue to help in rehabilitation and improvement of other dam including strengthening the institutional, legal and technical framework for dam safety assurance within the Government of India and in the participating states. The USD 137 million loan from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), has a 3-year grace period, and a final maturity of 16 years.

Trade in electronic components drives growth in technology goods: UNCTAD

According to new figures released by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD),demand for electronic components used in Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices drove the value of trade in international imports of information and communications technology (ICT) goods in 2017 to reach around USD 2 trillion.

As per UNCTAD, trade in ICT goods grew slightly faster than merchandise trade and represented 13% of the total in 2017, down from the 16% high during the dot-com boom in 2000 but the highest in two years. By comparison, in 2017 machinery and transport equipment accounted for 37% and food for 8% of merchandise imports.

Among ICT products, trade in electronic components continued to expand with an annual growth rate of 8%, a little less than that of computers and consumer electronics (9%) showing long-term, steady growth.

Figure I: Global imports of ICT goods, USD billion, by product category

Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from UNCTAD; Note: Values adjusted for re-imports and re-exports

Top 10 exporters and importers of ICT goods:

China is by far the largest exporter of ICT goods whereas the Republic of Korea boasted the highest growth rate among the top 10 exporters in 2017. Exports also grew significantly for all the other top ten exporters, except the US. Further, the market share of the top 10 exporters was about 86% in 2017.

Meanwhile, the US is the top importer followed closely by China and Hong Kong (China). Also, Mexico was the only economy among the top 10 where ICT goods imports did not grow in 2017.

The share of intra-industry trade remains high in the ICT sector, with interdependence between the big Asian, North American and European players. The top importers also typically feature among the top exporters of ICT goods.

Figure II: Top 10 importers and exporters of ICT goods, USD million, 2017 and annual growth rate

(2016-2017)

Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from UNCTAD

Region wise Export and import of ICT goods:

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

February 2019 CPI inflation rises to 2.6%

Rural India inflation rises to 1.8% in February as compared to 1.2% in January 2019 and Urban India inflation rises to 3.4% in February 2019 as compared to 2.9% in January 2019

The all India general CPI inflation (Combined) for February 2019 rises to 2.6% from 1.9% in January 2019. The inflation rates for rural and urban areas for February (Prov.) 2019 are 1.8% and 3.4% as compared to 1.2% and 2.9% respectively, for January 2019. Rate of inflation during February (Prov.) 2019 for fuel and light (1.2%), housing (5.1%), transport and communication (3.1%), education (8.1%) and health (8.8%) etc.

Consumer Price Index (combined)

Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from MOSPI

Consumer Price Inflation (Combined) (%)

Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from CSO

All India annual inflation rates (%)

Category	Annual inflation rate (February 2019)
Category	Rural	Urban	Combined
Food and Beverages	(-)1.1	1.8	(-)0.07
Pan, tobacco and intoxicants	6.2	3.5	5.5
Clothing and Footwear	1.4	4.9	2.7
Housing	-	5.1	5.1
Fuel and Light	2.04	(-)0.2	1.2
Miscellaneous	7.3	4.7	6.02
General Index (All Groups)	1.8	3.4	2.6

Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from MOSPI Note: CPI (Rural) for Housing is not available

Consumer Price Index for the month of February 2019 for rural, urban and combined stood at 141, 138.6 and 139.9 respectively. In addition to this, Consumer Food Price Indices (CFPI) of February 2019 for rural, urban and combined stands at 135, 135.5 and 135.2 respectively.

Provisional annual inflation rate based on all India CFPI (Combined) for the month of February 2019 stands at (-)0.7% as compared to (-)2.2% in the previous month. The corresponding provisional inflation rates on all India CFPI for rural and urban areas for February 2019 are (-)1.8% and 1.3% respectively as against January 2019 are (-)2.9% and (-)0.9% respectively.

Wednesday, March 6, 2019

MARCH 16, 2019