Wednesday, June 4, 2014

“Vote Share” and “Representativeness” of newly elected MPs - 2014

Association for Democratic Reforms and National Election Watch have analysed the percentage of votes won by the newly elected MPs of Lok Sabha elections, 2014 and their representativeness among the total number of registered voters. The data disclosed by the Election Commission of India on their website (http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/index.aspx) has been used for this report.

The percentage of representativeness was calculated by dividing the votes polled for the winner by the electorate i.e. the total number of registered voters. This value represents the percentage of votes won by the winning candidate among the total number of registered voters in the constituency.

Representativeness = Total Votes Polled for Winner/Total No. of Registered Voters

The percentage of vote share was calculated by dividing the votes polled for the winner by the total number of valid votes. This value represents the percentage of votes won by the winning candidate among the total number of valid votes polled.

Vote Share = Total Votes Polled for Winner/Total No. of Valid Votes Polled

Summary and Highlights

Vote Share

Average vote share of winners: The winners of the Lok Sabha 2014 elections won by an average of 47% of total votes polled. In Lok Sabha elections 2009, the winners won by an average of 44% of total votes polled.

Vote Share of less than 50%: 331 (61%) winners have won with less than 50% of total votes polled in their constituency.
Vote Share of less than 40%: 99 (18%) winners have won with less than 40% of total votes polled in their constituency.
Vote Share of less than 30%: 4 winners have won with less than 30% of total votes polled in their constituency. They are;

S.No.	Candidate	State	Constituency	Party	Total Registered Voters	Total Votes Polled	Total Votes Polled for Winner	% Vote Share
1	Thupstan Chhewang	Jammu & Kashmir	Ladakh	BJP	1,66,763	1,18,029	31,111	26%
2	Ravneet Singh Bittu	Punjab	Ludhiana	INC	15,61,201	11,00,457	3,00,459	27%
3	Prof. Azmeera Seetaram Naik	Andhra Pradesh	Mahabubabad	TRS	13,87,343	11,24,370	3,20,569	29%
4	Md. Salim	West Bengal	Raiganj	CPI(M)	13,87,526	11,08,193	3,17,515	29%

Party-wise vote share of less than 50%: Out of 282 winners of BJP, 142 (50%) have won with less than 50% of total votes polled in their constituency. 37 (84%) out of 44 winners from INC, 30 (81%) out of 37 winners from AIADMK, 28 (82%) out of 34 winners from AITC, 13 (65%) out of 20 winners from BJD and 6 (33%) out of 18 winners from Shiv Sena won with less than 50% of total votes polled in their constituency.

Winners with highest vote share: Jardosh Darshnaben Vikrambhai of BJP from Surat Constituency won with a vote share of 76% of total votes polled from his constituency. He is followed by Narendra Modi of BJP from Vadodara constituency with 73% of total votes polled and Patil Chandrakant Raghunath of BJP from Navsari constituency with 71% of total votes polled in the constituency.

Representativeness

Average representativeness of winners: All the winners of the Lok Sabha 2014 elections won with an average of 31% of the total registered voters. This implies that the winners represent on an average, 31% of the total electorate. In Lok Sabha elections 2009, the winners won by an average of 26% of the total registered voters. This implies that the winners in 2009, represented on an average, 26% of the total electorate.

Winners with Representativeness of more than 50%: Only 4 MPs out of 543 have shown representativeness of more than 50% and they are:

Constituency	Candidate Name	Party	Total Registered Voters	Total Votes Polled for Winner	% of Representativeness
Nagaland	Neiphiu Rio	NPF	11,82,948	7,13,372	60%
Tripura East	Jitendra Choudhury	CPI(M)	11,40,269	6,23,771	55%
Tripura West	Sankar Prasad Datta	CPI(M)	12,48,550	6,71,665	54%
Vadodara	Narendra Modi	BJP	16,38,321	8,45,464	52%

Winners with Representativeness of less than 40%: 475 (87%) winners have won with less than 40% of total registered voters in their constituency.
Winners with Representativeness of less than 30%: 211 (39%) winners have won with less than 30% of total registered voters in their constituency.
Winners with Representativeness of less than 20%: 19 candidates have won with less than 20% of total registered voters in their constituency.
Party-wise Representativeness of less than 40%: Out of 282 winners of BJP, 250 (89%) have won with less than 40% of votes out of total registered voters in their constituency. 42(95%) out of 44 winners from INC, 34 (92%) out of 37 winners from AIADMK, 27 (79%) out of 34 winners from AITC, 18 (90%) out of 20 winners from BJD and all 18 winners from Shiv Sena won with less than 40% of votes out of total registered voters in their constituency.

Winners with lowest representativeness: Tariq Hameed Karra from Srinagar constituency won with 13% out of the total registered voters in the constituency followed by Muzaffar Hussain Baig from Baramulla constituency and Mehbooba Mufti from Anantnag constituency both with 15% out of the total registered voters in their constituency. All three winners are from JKPDP.

None of the Above

The total number votes polled for NOTA: The total number of votes polled for the None-of-the-Above option was 60,00,197 (60 lakhs plus) votes.
Percentage of votes polled for NOTA: 1.08% of total votes polled were for the None-of-the-Above button
Highest percentage of votes polled for NOTA in a constituency: The highest percentage of votes polled for NOTA was in Bastar constituency, Chhattisgarh with 38772 (5.04%) votes polled followed by Nilgiris constituency, Tamil Nadu with 46559 (4.99%) votes polled for NOTA and 44408 (4.34%) votes in Nabarangpur constituency, Odisha.